Key Senate Race Updates
RCP is now showing us 11 toss-ups, 46 Dem and 43 Rep. Changes since 9/29 are pretty limited. Toss-ups are still toss-ups. Nobody has switched position. Some minor movement in numbers, usually a slight decrease in the Dem’s lead showing the waning of DNC bounce; only in the case of Nevada has the Republican widened an existing lead.
Check the table for the numbers!
Past updates are below the table.
Latest stories on 2012 US Senate races, updated regularly:
Here are the key races and their latest poll averages, as of 10/12/12:
9/29/2012: It’s been a month, time for an update.
RCP presently shows 9 toss-ups, 48 Dem and 43 Rep. Changes this month:
- Arizona, Carmona (D) v. Flake (R), has moved from Leans Rep to Toss Up.
- Massachusetts, Warren (D) v. Brown (R), remains a Toss Up, but shifts from a narrow lead for Brown to a narrow lead for Warren.
- Michigan, Stabenow (D) v. Hoekstra (R) moves from Toss Up to Likely Dem.
- Missouri, McCaskill (D) v. Akin (R) moves from Toss Up to Leans Dem.
- Nevada, Berkley (D) v. Heller (R) moves from Leans Rep to Toss Up.
- Ohio, Brown (D) v. Mandel (R) moves from Toss Up to Leans Dem.
- Wisconsin, Baldwin (D) v. Thompson (R) moves from Leans Rep to Toss Up.
Do you see what I see?
Over the last month, three races moved from “Leans Rep” to “Toss Up”. Three more moved from “Toss Up” to “Leans Dem” or “Likely Dem”. The last remains a Toss Up, but the edge shifted to the Dem candidate.
None of the races are shifting to the right. Could we be seeing a backlash against the grandstanding and obstructionism of the Republican Party for the last two years?
8/28/12: It looks like the Senate races are going to be fluid this time around. Only six days since the last update, RCP now shows 46 Dem, 46 Rep, and 8 toss-ups.
Not much of a change, right? One race?
Try five. Three moved from “Toss-Up” to a lean in one direction or another, and two moved from leans to “toss-ups”.
- Florida, Nelson vs. Mack is now Leaning Dem.
Michigan, Stabenow vs. Hoekstra moved from Leaning Dem to Toss-Up.
- Missouri, McCaskill vs. Akin is now Leaning Dem.
Nevada, Berkley vs. Heller is now Leaning Rep.
- Ohio, Brown vs. Mandel moved from Leaning Dem to Toss-Up.
Net is one Lean Rep.
8/22/12: RealClearPolitics currently calls 46 seats as “Safe,” “Likely,” or “Leaning” Democrat (or not up for election), and 45 “Safe”, “Likely”, or “Leaning” Republican (or not up).
So this year, control of the Senate boils down to just nine races. Akin vs. McCaskill is still competitive, thanks to McCaskill’s unpopularity; just last week, she was 11 points behind Akin.
Barring unexpected surges in the other races, the Democrats need to win five of these to retain control of the Senate; the Republicans need to win six. A 4D-5R split would leave the Senate divided down the middle.
Since tiebreaking votes are cast by the Vice President, if there is a 50-50 split in the Senate, the party in the White House will control the Senate.