Akin dustup draws attention to ‘tossup’ Senate races

Following Todd Akin’s dramatic shifting of his Missouri Senate race from “Legitimate Republican” to “tossup”, I wanted to see what other Senate races are equally uncertain. There are a total of nine.

According to RealClearPolitics, anyway. They also see 46 seats as “Safe,” “Likely,” or “Leaning” Democrat (or not up for election), and 45 “Safe”, “Likely”, or “Leaning” Republican (or not up).

So this year, control of the Senate boils down to just nine races. Akin vs. McCaskill is still competitive, thanks to McCaskill’s unpopularity; just last week, she was 11 points behind Akin.

Barring unexpected surges in the other races, the Democrats need to win five of these to retain control of the Senate; the Republicans need to win six. A 4D-5R split would leave the Senate divided down the middle.

Since tiebreaking votes are cast by the Vice President, if there is a 50-50 split in the Senate, the party in the White House will control the Senate.

Here are the nine key races:

State	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Latest RCP Average	Notes
Arizona	Richard Carmona (D) Bio | Campaign Site	Jeff Flake (R) Bio | Campaign Site	Flake +2.3	Update 10/12. Remains "toss up"; Flake has lost 1.2 points in last two weeks.
Connecticut	Chris Murphy Bio | Campaign Site	Linda McMahon Bio | Campaign Site	Murphy +3.4	Update 10/12. Murphy has increased his lead further, and more consistently.
Florida	Bill Nelson (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Connie Mack Bio | Campaign Site	Nelson +8.0	Updated 10/12 Moved by RCP to "Leans Democratic" 9/29
Indiana	Joe Donnelly Bio | Campaign Site	Richard Mourdock Bio | Campaign Site	Donnelly +2.0	Update 10/12. Only one poll in all of September; RCP toss-up. No new polls since 9/29 update.
Massachusetts	Elizabeth Warren Bio | Campaign Site	Scott Brown (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Warren +2.5	Updated 10/12, a slight increase in Warren's lead.
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Pete Hoekstra (R) Bio | Campaign Site	Stabenow +13.3	Updated 10/12, moved from "Toss Up" to "Likely Democratic" by RCP 9/29.
Missouri	Claire McCaskill (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Todd Akin Bio | Campaign Site	McCaskill +2.3	Updated 10/12, RCP moved back to "Toss Up" from "Leans Dem".
Montana	Jon Tester (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Denny Rehberg Bio | Campaign Site	Rehberg +1.7	Updated 10/12. No change in average since 9/29.
Nevada	Shelley Berkley Bio | Campaign Site	Dean Heller (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Heller +3.0	Updated 910/12. Moved from "Leans Rep" back to "Toss Up" by RCP. Heller's lead increased 1 point since 9/29.
North Dakota	Heidi Heitkamp Bio | Campaign Site	Rick Berg Bio | Campaign Site	Tie	Updated 10/12. Only poll since July (10/3-10/5) is a tie. Change from Berg +5.0.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (Incumbent) Bio | Campaign Site	Josh Mandel Bio | Campaign Site	Brown +4.2	Updated 10/12. Moved by RCP back to "Toss Up". Brown's lead has dropped 3.3 points in last two weeks.
Virginia	Tim Kaine Bio | Campaign Site	George Allen Bio | Campaign Site	Kaine +3.4	Update 10/12. Kaine's 3.4 average lead appears stable.
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D) Bio | Campaign Site	Tommy Thompson (R) Bio | Campaign Site	Baldwin +3.0	Update 10/12. Formerly "Leans Rep", RCP now calls this race a Toss Up. Baldwin has consistently led since the DNC, though her lead has declined by 2 points since 9/29.

Related articles:

1. Akin lets deadline pass, stays in Senate race
2. Anti-Abortion Group Calls on Todd Akin to Withdraw from Senate Race
3. Todd Akin, Darling of the Religious Right, Wins Senate Primary
4. Todd Akin wasn’t ‘misspeaking’ about ‘legitimate rape’ but speaking for a movement
5. Paul Ryan to Headline Todd Akin Love Fest Next Month