GOP has 10% lead in mid-term election polling

The latest Gallup poll shows the Republican party widening its lead over the Democratic party in a mid-term election tracking poll to ten percent — its largest lead ever.

Gallup has conducted a weekly tracking poll positing a generic “Republican” vs. a generic “Democrat” for Congressional mid-term elections since 1942. In that time, the Democratic party has often seen wide leads; the largest, a 32% lead in 1974, came just before Republican President Richard Nixon’s resignation over the Watergate scandal.

Before 2010, the largest lead for the Republican party was 5%. Ever.

During the month of August 2010, the Republican party has seen leads of 6%, 7%, and now 10%. This most recent poll, conducted August 25-29, reached 1,540 registered voters in all 50 states and D.C., using land and cell lines, and speaking Spanish and English.

Image: Gallup

Were this result not significant enough in potential impact to the makeup of the House and Senate, Republican voters are also far more enthusiastic about voting this year.

A full fifty percent of Republicans declared themselves “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, compared to an anemic 25% of Democrats and similar 28% of Independents.

Image: Gallup

This combination of a generic ballot lead and intense enthusiasm for voting suggests a strong Republican turnout this year, including the potential for a reversal of both House and Senate majorities.

Gallup’s Frank Newport comments:

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.

The entire House is up for election, as their terms are only two years. Senate terms are six years, and staggered. Of the 37 Senate seats presently up for election, all predictors currently determine 10 seats to be “safe Republican” and 4 “safe Democratic”. Rasmussen predicts that 18 competitive seats are either a tossup or will likely go Republican (August 30). Real Clear Politics predicts 19 seats in the same boat (August 21). Barring surprises, if the tossups go GOP, we will see 28 to 29 of the 37 seats go GOP. That means a new GOP majority: 46-47 Democratic Senators and 51-52 GOP Senators (plus 2 Independents).

Is it coincidence that this new peak of Republican enthusiasm and ballot lead occurs simultaneous with Glenn Beck’s August 28 “Restoring Honor” rally and August 27 “America’s Divine Destiny” speech? Is it reasonable to ignore the theocratic leanings of Beck, the “rodeo clown”? Is it wise to discount the Dominionist Tea Party, the right-wing’s new fund-raising Jabberwocky packed to the gills with retired members intent on establishing a “Christian nation”, all happy to donate our tax dollars (received via the Social Security welfare program) to that end?

What do you think? Are these groups a real threat to America, or is the economy the sole cause for the unprecedented leads currently enjoyed by the Republican party? Or are Democrats losing their enthusiasm because the current administration’s focus on “bipartisanship” has led to watering down or killing nearly every initiative on which Obama campaigned? All of the above?

Related articles:

1. Zogby, Gallup both find Democrats in Congressional lead
2. Election 2011: Mississippi “Personhood” Prop 26, Ohio anti-union both fail
3. GOP takes lead in latest Zogby poll
4. Fox News poll puts Romney back in lead
5. Bachmann takes lead in Iowa

Mike Daniels is co-editor of Secular News Daily.

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